Friday, February 10, 2006

Global Warming With Pancho the Alien

I have come to believe that the scarcity of critical thought on our planet has reached near disastrous proportions. That the discerning mind is now as rare as Paris Hilton in comfortable shoes. Or Susan Surandon dating a man.
With this in mind, I have taken it upon myself to go forth and rediscover, somewhere out there in the vast universe, the owner of a great and powerful intellect. A creature with logic capabilities far greater than those we as humans possess, one with a superior ability to dissect and describe the shared universe in which we all exist. And at long last, I feel, I found success.
Meet Pancho. He is a scientist. He is an alien(take that as you will). And he is my expert...On everything(so get used to him, you’ll be hearing a lot more from him).
So when I came across an article from The Globe and Mail online entitled “World at its warmest of past 1,200 years, researchers show”, I contacted Pancho for his thoughts.

S&S: Good morning, Pancho.
Pancho: And to you as well, Earthling.
S&S: What’s with the horn growing out of the middle of your head?
Pancho: Oh, that...well, it’s mating season. But I’m sure you didn’t call me here to discuss my amorous habits...
S&S: Truer words have never been spoken. I actually contacted you for some input on an article I recently had the pleasure to peruse. And to help explain some problems I had with a few of its points and assumptions.
Pancho: It would be my pleasure. My great discerning intellect is at your disposal.
S&S: Why do I have the feeling that ‘disposal’ is an apt choice of words?
Pancho: Eh?
S&S: Never mind. Let’s just get to it.
Pancho: I am at your service.
S&S: It’d would probably be easier if we took a few paragraphs, read them and then discussed them. How’s that sound to you?
Pancho: Perfect. That should work like a well oiled marine.
S&S: Uh, don’t you mean ‘machine’?
Pancho: Oh yes, of course. It will work like a well machined marine.
S&S: Let’s just get on with it.
The last part of the 20th century is considered by many scientists to be the warmest period since modern record-keeping began around the 1850s, but new research indicates the era is even more remarkable.
The warmth in which the Northern Hemisphere has basked since the middle of the 20th century has been the most widespread and longest period of unusual climate experienced at any time during at least the past 1,200 years, according to a research paper in the journal Science.
The finding, by a pair of climate researchers from the University of East Anglia in Norwich, U.K., was based on comparisons of the current warm period to other hot and cold intervals since the year 800.

S&S: As an expert, when a journalist refers to ‘many scientists’, what number is he likely referring to?
Pancho: That’s an easy one. The word ‘many’ usually correlates to the number of Leftist scientists the journalist has in his Rolodex.
S&S: By that logic, couldn’t he just as accurately used the word ‘all’?
Pancho: Yes, of course. But we are just splitting rabbits here, are we not?
S&S: I believe that’s hairs, but I disagree...
Pancho: Why would we be splitting rabbit hair....
S&S: Enough! Let’s move on.
When the writer states, ‘The warmth in which the Northern Hemisphere has basked since the middle of the 20th century has been the most widespread and longest period of unusual climate...’, what the heck does he mean? If there are, in fact, periods of unusual climates, then aren’t unusual periods actually part of the usual process. Aren’t they, in fact, ‘usual’?
Pancho: Usually I wouldn’t use a word like unusual. I consider such words unusable in the usual scientific discourse. Usually adjectives aren’t used. And I’m not used to their usage.
S&S: Ouch.
Pancho: You felling ok, you look kind of pale? You’re alright? Good.
Our author’s next point I find rather odd, though. My species only has records of climate on our planet for the last 500 years. Strange how you barbaric sub-evolved creatures have kept such accurate records since ‘the year 800'.
S&S: We’ll get to that a little later, let’s read on...
Among these long periods of alternating temperatures were the "Little Ice Age" that sent Northern Europe into a deep freeze, and the Medieval Warm Period around 1000, when an interval of more benign climate coincided with the rise of the sea-faring Vikings.

S&S: Here he freely admits to the Earth experiencing ‘long periods of alternating temperatures’, doesn’t this cause the article’s entire argument to fall apart?
Pancho: You see I would expect just that point coming from you, a non-scientist. You see all weather is merely another sign of global warming. Record snows on Hawaiian mountains are proof of global warming. Hurricanes in the gulf are portends of global warming. Heat waves in the Midwest are signs of global warming. Cold snaps in the Midwest...you guessed it, global warming.
S&S: Of course, why couldn’t I see that...moron.
Pancho: No, that’s Morlon. I’m a Morlon, from the eighth planet of Sagittariun system, Morlo.
S&S: Can we move on?
The research was undertaken to help determine whether recent warming is a natural phenomenon, part of the normal long-term fluctuations of temperatures that have been observed around the world, or something whose intensity makes it without precedent.
The researchers think their work bolsters the case that global warming due to human activity has created a change in climate unlike anything seen in more than a millennium.
The findings "provide additional support for the case that recent warmth is unusual in the context of natural changes in the last 1,200 years," said Timothy Osborn, one of the researchers, who added that the results are "probably related" to greenhouse gas emissions from human activity.

S&S: Finally, some intellectual honesty. But aren’t there other causes of ‘greenhouse gas emissions’?
Pancho: Yes, of course. We have found many plants and animals on Morlon give off such gases in very high quantities. Which is why The Bureau of Fixing Any Problems That Seem Scary has enacted a law to destroy all such flora and fauna.
S&S: Hmmm, your planet sounds very nice.
But back to the above paragraph. Why, I wonder, are we just looking at history of climate change ‘in the last 1,200 years’? Was there not ‘climate change’ before this millennia?
Pancho: Yes, you idiot, but not the kind that backs the author and his pet scientist’s theories. In our studies of Earth’s history, we found a history of climate change. Often brought on by natural forces such as changes in the Earths orbit, a change in the tilt of your planet’s axis, or a wobble of the axis. But let’s keep that on the low down.
S&S: The down low?
Pancho: No thanks, I don’t go that way.
Next.
Although direct temperature measurements extend back only about 150 years, the researchers were able to infer earlier readings throughout the Northern Hemisphere by looking at the signs that temperatures left in tree rings, ice cores and seashells from 14 sites across North America, Europe and Asia.
Two of the temperature estimates were from Canada -- one from tree-ring measurements taken in the Rockies near the Columbia Ice Field, the other from tree rings in a Northern Quebec boreal forest.
Other records were based on tree samples from the United States, Austria, Sweden, Russia and Mongolia, among others, along with Greenland ice cores and seashells from Chesapeake Bay in the United States.

S&S: What!?! So this great scientific theory is based on the study of ‘14 sites’. Fourteen whole sites!
Pancho: That is not so odd, you neophyte. In fact, I was sponsored by the Federation of Planets to conduct a study of life on your planet, Earth. I took samples from the Sahara desert, the top of Mount McKinley, the center of the Arctic Circle, and the Marianas Trench.
S&S: What were your findings.
Pancho: Well, I proved through my thorough exhaustive investigation, that there are in fact no life forms presently on planet Earth.
S&S: Uh, Pancho...you’re talking to me...I’m a life form...
Pancho: And your point is?
S&S: Well, you’re the expert here, but again, I’m a life form...
Pancho: Doh! Looks like it’s back to The Federation’s Bureau of Studies to Back Up Questionable Assumptions Department to beg for more funding.
Tree rings are an excellent gauge of past climate conditions, particularly if the trees are from cold-weather locations near the tree line, where growth is highly dependent on temperature conditions.
Dr. Osborn said that in such places, the amount of growth is limited by how warm the summer is. If it is warmer, the tree growth is greater and the tree ring is wider. Colder years have the opposite effect. Each year provides only one tree ring. "So counting back the rings can give the precise date to when each ring actually grew," he said.
Through recent measurements, scientists have been able to determine how much a tree will grow at any given temperature, allowing accurate estimates of previous temperatures.

S&S: Alright, now my head hurts.
Pancho: Can I get you something....
S&S: No, you moron...
Pancho: Morlon.
S&S: Oh my God! Whatever...
So I am to believe we are to base our entire future on tree rings? Tree rings!?
Pancho: That is not so odd. On Morlon, we often use tree rings as calenders...they are quite accurate. You have your nuclear clocks, we have our tree rings. Or we did, anyway. Until, as I’ve stated before, we destroyed the trees in order to protect the environment.
S&S: Your race reminds me of some humans here on Earth.
Pancho: I sure appreciate you giving me my propellers...
S&S: It’s ‘props’, you idiot...PROPS!!
Pancho: No thanks, I work without them.
S&S: Arrrgghhh!
There are usually periods in which some regions of the globe are warming and others are cooling.
But Dr. Osborn said the 20th century was remarkable for the geographical extent of the warming because "all records indicate warm conditions at the same time."
Reliable records from trees and other sources go back only about 1,200 years, but this allowed the researchers to measure the magnitude of the current bout of warming against two of the best known long-term weather conditions, the Little Ice Age from about 1580 to 1850, and the Medieval Warm Period from 890 to 1170.
These eras were not continuously warm or cool, but were punctuated by hot and cold spells.
However, their temperature extremes were not as pronounced as the current warming, according to the research.

S&S: Is it normal for scientists to extrapolate normal climatic conditions of a 4.5 billion year old planet from somewhat questionable information of a mere 1,200 years?
Pancho: Why, of course. On Morlon, I did a study for The Federation’s Bureau of Things We Can Spend Our Excess Budget On So That We Still Get an Increase Next Solar Year Department using much the same logic.
S&S: Ok, I’ll bite...
Pancho: Well, I had my interns count how many spaceships passed a certain point during rush hour. I can’t remember the exact number, but I think it was ten. So between 8 and 9 AM, ten spacecraft passed by. Well, logic told me that since there are 10 hours in the Morlon day, then one hundred spaceships would pass by in a day.
S&S: That’s just genius. You are amazing...
Pancho: Yes, thank you. But as it turns out The Division of Checking Up on Questionable Findings did an audit. They sent out a team to check my results, and as it turns out my findings were incorrect. The number was much less than one hundred...
S&S: Surprising...
Pancho: Yes, surprising. It was like something out of left of study.
S&S: If I’m not mistaken, it’s ‘field’.
Pancho: As you will. But you’re right, it was out of my field of study. They cut my funding.
S&S: I’m in hell...
Pancho: What is this hell you speak of?
S&S: Shut up. Let’s just get this over with.
Not all scientists agree that the 20th century is the warmest period in recent history.
In 2003, a team led by researchers from the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics announced that it believed the 20th century wasn't the warmest, nor the one with the most extreme weather of the past 1,000 years.
But this research has been criticized for its selection of the indicators used to estimate historic temperatures, among other problems.
The new paper tried to overcome some of these shortcomings by carefully selecting items, such as tree rings, that are directly connected to temperature changes.
Although the new paper looked at data up to only 1995, recent years have continued with even more pronounced warmth.
The World Meteorological Organization said late last year that the decade from 1996-2005 contained nine of the 10 warmest years on record.

S&S: So ‘this research has been criticized for its selection of the indicators’, yet fourteen sites to indicate planet wide weather is not?
Pancho: Fourteen is a lot. We Morlons have fourteen thumbs, you know. More than we really know what to do with. We just have no where to put them.
S&S: I’m sure that’s so.
I have one last question for you. The World Meteorological Organization said ‘the decade from 1996-2005 contained nine of the 10 warmest years on record’. But it does not tell where the temperature readings it uses were taken. If they were taken worldwide and measured against the tree ring and ice cores taken in mainly Northern climates and ‘cold-weather locations near the tree line’, as stated earlier in the article, wouldn’t it make sense that today’s weather would be found to be warmer? Temperatures of the entire Earth against those of Northern climates?
Pancho: Excellent point, Earthling. If you wish I could put in a good word for you at The Department of Cynical Aliens. They’re always looking for a few good primates. Seems most of your kind just trail the leader.
S&S: Alright, that’s it. It is ‘follow the leader', you freak. Follow the leader!
Pancho: Relax. I’ll gladly follow him, but how am I to follow him if I don’t know where he’s at...
S&S: No. Don’t say it. For God sakes don’t say it.
Pancho: All I’m asking, really, is take me to your leader.
S&S: That’s it. I’m done.